2018-07-11 09:39:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
In recent times, the Trump administration sees the sweet state of U.S. economic expansion as of early-July 2018. The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey indicates 54% majority approval of the Trump team's supply-side economic reform. At least for 2018Q2, U.S. economic output grows at a hefty rate of 4% year-to-year. Non-farm payrolls add 213,000 full-time jobs in June 2018. Further, the U.S. trade deficit shrinks by 6.6% to $43 billion or the lowest level in 19 months.
U.S. average wages growth increases to 2.7%, whereas, CPI inflation remains as low as 2% that the Federal Reserve targets in order to maintain the current neutral interest rate hike. Unemployment is as low as 4% per annum, and most other top-line U.S. economic statistics land in reasonable ranges near full employment, the latter of which is part of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. In light of this recent evidence, the Federal Reserve seems able to trade off maximum employment with moderate inflationary momentum.
President Trump deserves a lion's share of credit for this sweet state of economic affairs in America. The mid-term election stirs positive animal spirits and investor sentiments. The recent rollback of Dodd-Frank bank regulations boosts financial intermediary capital for better profitability, M&A momentum, and key balance sheet strength. Trump tax cuts breed corporate efficiency, capital investment growth, and both dividend payout and share buyback. These positive economic affairs trickle down to benefit shareholders, small-to-medium enterprises, and investment firms. Whether these economic affairs can sustain the current sweet state remains open to healthy debate due to bitter social polarization and rampant economic inequality.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at [email protected] so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-01-27 17:19:00 Friday ET
Tony Robbins explains in his latest book on personal finance that *patience* is the top secret to successful stock investment. The stock market embeds an
2023-03-07 11:29:00 Tuesday ET
Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Mervyn King (2017) &nb
2018-12-20 13:40:00 Thursday ET
T-Mobile and Sprint indicate that the U.S. is likely to approve their merger plan as they take the offer from foreign owners to stop using HuaWei telecom te
2023-05-31 11:27:00 Wednesday ET
What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology? In this macro report, we focus on the current global risks from inflation and growth con
2023-05-27 11:30:00 Saturday ET
Bank failure resolution and financial risk management: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. What are the main root cau
2020-05-14 12:35:00 Thursday ET
Disruptive innovators can better compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish jobs. Clayton Christensen, T